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11/4/2006 2:30:00 PM
Tonga to NZ - Day 4 of 7
Our last passage for this cruising adventure

Day 4 of 7 - Analysis Paralysis

I think I talked about the difference of sailing in the tropics and sailing in the high latitudes before. This trip doesn't even touch what's called the 'roaring forties' or the 'screaming fifties' but it is still a big departure from the predictable trade

I have a litte PS to yesterday's email ... I wore for the first time today in a long, long, long time SOCKS ... did you ever notice how hard it is to put on flip-flops with socks ... DAMN where have the tropics gone.

But now on to a more interesting and exciting topic or what I titled 'analysis paralysis', a more descriptive title would 'how to pick a good weather window'. Sounds simple enough doesn't it. Well it is not and the more people you ask the more complicated it gets, but let me back up a bit.

I think I talked about the difference of sailing in the tropics and sailing in the high latitudes before. This trip doesn't even touch what's called the 'roaring forties' or the 'screaming fifties' but it is still a big departure from the predictable trade winds we have been used to since leaving Mexico, or at least a few days out of Mexico.

One of the things someone needs to watch out for when going to New Zealand is NOT to arrive in the middle of a low because that not only brings rain which is not a problem but nasty head winds up to gale force (35 knots and higher). The issue gets more difficult the slower your boat goes. Lawur on average does about 150 miles a day, though in the last 3 days we racked up 526 miles, which is 76 miles in the bank so far or said differently ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, that average will change when the winds go away tomorrow or the day after and when we need to motor ... average speeds when motoring are at least 1 knot per hour less.

Getting back to the weather window to pick, with a 150 mile per day boat that results in a 7 day passage from South Tonga or about 5 days from Minerva, a reef on the way to NZ. We didn't stop in Minerva because it looked promising but many cruisers do. Now anyone who has turned on the news lately and watched the weather might have noticed they are having a hard time telling us what the weather will be tomorrow. Can you imagine how accurate they are 7 days out!?

In addition to this, once you get all the different information such as radars, jet streams, weather forecasts, GRIB files ... there is lots of room for interpretation. Sailors in general are not shy people or someone without strong opinions, so you get to hear any possible weather scenario if you ask enough people. For me, I gave up on participating in this weather 'guessing' a while ago. I listen to some of the amateur weather gurus while we were in the tropics, mixed that with common sense and what I knew the boat and the crew could take and did fine. For this crossing though, we decided to hire a professional router by the name of Bob McDavitt. Even he changed his mind twice before we got the final go ahead and now it looks like we might be running out of time nevertheless and will be running into a storm around Nov 7th in the evening ... we pushing as hard as possible to get there before that while still staying somewhat comfortable.

Here is a great example of what analysis paralysis means when it comes to weather forecasting. I received a radio call right when we had the dingy stored away, our decks cleaned up and down below everything prepped for leaving (takes a few hours to get the boat ready for a passage, leave alone the mental aspect), comes the call from a friendly cruiser trying to help with more weather info ... "Did you hear that they are saying now you need to be in NZ before the 6th!? I have the radio conversation taped it you want. How fast is your boat going? Do you think you can make it? This and that boat decided to stay ... " ... my head was spinning and I politely declined to listen to it.

So now we are underway, the sun is shining nicely though it is chilly and you need a jacket to be outside, the ocean is still blue in case you were wondering, but we are a bit nervous about the low that is forming over New Zealand. I guess there is nothing we can do but wait until we get closer and then either go for it or wait far enough outside until the system blows by ... hopefully not but you might get more daily reports after all.

Before I forget, today was a big day for us since we officially crossed the date line and are now back in the Eastern hemisphere. Thought we didn't change the day since Tonga breaks the general date line rule and not quite as spectacular as crossing the equator but still something to report when you coast along at 7 knots with nothing but blue oceans around.

Have fun analyzing the weather wherever you are,

Robert and Crew

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